Keeping the kibble from the underdogs
It’s March 8, 2023, and here’s the rundown:
A majority of Americans think we’re in a recession
Keeping the kibble from the underdogs
Numbers and links
A majority of Americans think we’re in a recession
This topic never gets old, right?
Since it never gets old: Are we in a recession?
The answer is no…but that doesn't mean that a whole lot of people believe that we are, and have believed it going back to last year. I came across a post somewhere in which someone asked a question along these lines: “How is everyone holding up with this recession?”
“What’s this person talking about?” was my first question. So I Googled it. “How many people think we’re in a recession,” I threw at the internet, and Bing brought me back a recent Axios article discussing this very topic. As you can see in the graph above, a majority of Americans think we’re in a recession, and have going back to last summer.
From the Axios report:
In reality, the economy is hot, unemployment is at record lows, and there's no sign of a downturn any time soon.
Right…the economy is too strong right now, which is why the Fed continues to raise interest rates. Those rate hikes have slowed some things down, but not all (or enough) of them.
Of course, this isn’t to say that we won’t be in a recession in a month, but it is interesting to get a gauge of people’s perceptions. But that takes us to another question: Why do people believe we’re in a recession?
I’ll empathize: It sort of feels like we’re in a recession I suppose. Sort of. It has for a while. And now we’re seeing big companies announce layoffs. We also had those two quarters of negative GDP growth, which spawned all sorts of arguments about what a recession actually is. And, of course, the market isn’t returning 30% per year as it did for a couple of years.
But that brings me to another question: Did everyone forget what a recession looks and feels like? We had a bad one 15 or so years ago, so it’s probably fair that many young adults actually don’t know the difference between a full-blown recession and the come-down from an economic cocaine binge.
Plus, you add in all the discussions about recessions in recent months, and yeah, I guess it isn’t hard to see why people would think we’re in one. But every measure we have right now — RIGHT NOW — says that the economy is actually in good shape. Yes, layoffs are happening, and inflation is still too high — these are probably what people are associating with recession. But they’re not necessarily the same.
In the end, does it matter? Not really. But perception is important. It can decide elections. And there’s a battle of perception going on here. That’s a good thing to keep in mind: Forces are at work trying to shape your worldview. It works, too. But you can look at the numbers yourself and come to your own conclusion.
Keeping the kibble from the underdogs
"Unfair hierarchies destroy motivation, and motivation is the one thing that underdogs must have more than everyone else."
Let’s get a little philosophical. Again.
Last year, or the year before (who knows), I picked up the most recent book by one of my favorite authors, Sebastian Junger. It’s called “Freedom,” and it tells the story of how Junger and a few other guys walked along the railroad tracks from Washington D.C. to Pittsburgh — they get to see an entirely new side of America, all while dodging cops, getting shot at, and more.
There are also plenty of ruminations and discussions interspersed about individuality, community, and more — all circling around the “freedom” concept. I liked it a lot. It’s worth a read. I reached out to see if I could talk to him about it, but his agent said…get lost, kid.
Anyway, there was one passage that stood out to me, and which I wrote down intending to think more about and potentially share with all of you:
"Unfair hierarchies destroy motivation, and motivation is the one thing that underdogs must have more than everyone else."
Image: The alabaster fingertips of yours truly
Junger writes that while discussing the larger context of the Easter Rising in Ireland in 1916, and the American Revolution. Those events happened in essentially a different universe — there are few similarities to our modern world. But the principle holds true.
Motivated people make things happen. That can be of obvious concern to the status quo, no matter how big or small the scenario. People can effect big change, like during the American Revolution. Or, a single motivated person can get pissed off enough to quit their job, find another one, and improve their standing.
But again, as Junger writes, there are hierarchies in place to keep things from happening. I want to say “systems,” but I don’t think the Illuminati are pulling the strings here. I do, however, think that most of our modern lives are set up in a way to keep the majority of people dreamy and docile.
Think about it: How many times have you gotten fired up over something, vowing to take some sort of action, before getting distracted by the game on TV, something on Instagram, the fact that you have half a Domino’s Pizza in the fridge that you’re stoked to eat, or one of a thousand other things?
Your motivation deteriorates. An hour later, you’ve probably forgotten all about whatever it was that had you punching the air a short time ago. That’s the system — if you want to believe that there is a “system,” rather than a confluence of competing interests all smashing your frontal cortex simultaneously — at work. You’re now motivated not to force change or take action, but to seek out that next hit of dopamine from food, your significant other, the Xbox, or whatever.
This is why we’re unlikely to see any big movement on…anything, really. It takes a lot to get people off of their asses. It takes some serious motivation. But we have seen some flashes of it in recent years — protests after police killings, for example, or even the January 6th insurrection. The insurrection, of course, was fueled by a mountain range’s worth of bullshit, but it was effective at motivating a certain type of person to take action.
That’s another topic entirely, but I think I think the underlying issue there was that there were thousands of people who were motivated to do a thing, however misguided it was. And they went for it. We’ll be talking about it for the rest of our lives, too.
At the end of the day, motivated people can be dangerous. To corporations. To governments. To your boss. Motivated people do stuff. They compete. They get off their asses and may inspire others to do the same.
The next time motivation strikes, maybe try to hold onto it. Think about what is motivating you, and how it may fuel some sort of change in your own life. Maybe it’s enough to ask for a raise? Or beat out the other guy for a promotion? Or start your own business? Take it, and run with it.
Don’t let the bastards grind you down.
Numbers and links
31%: The number of burn injuries suffered by children that are due to instant noodles. (UChicago News)
0.9%: The estimated average annual decline in global insect populations, which is going to cause a whole lot of trouble. (The Conversation)
A car that repossesses itself?: Ford filed a ton of patents in recent years, including an autonomous vehicle that will drive itself away if you don’t make your payments. (NPR)
Interesting: How do you live with being the person who foresaw a cataclysmic event? (The Guardian)