We just lived through a historic stretch

Good morning

This is NP/NR Daily, meant to keep you up to date on what’s happening in the markets and economy, and what you can do about it — if anything.

Happy Wednesday.

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The markets just experienced a historic few months

The first quarter of 2020 was the worst ever, by some measures. And the markets are likely to sink even further. For the quarter, the Dow and S&P 500 — two popular benchmarks used to gauge the stock market as a whole — are down more than 20%. 

We’re getting a jobs report on Friday (which I’ll talk about tomorrow) that will lay out some of the damage, but isn’t going to tell the whole story. That’ll probably cause the markets to fall even more, so be prepared for that. 

The markets are one thing, of course. Lives are another.

The best-case scenario is pretty grim

During a press briefing yesterday, it seems like reality is setting in — the White House is predicting 100,000-240,000 deaths as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. That’s a best-case scenario, too.

The White House has been downplaying the crisis since the beginning, and in some respects, still is, but it looks like it’s finally starting to sink in that this is going to be a disaster of epic proportions. It’s hard to really fathom how we could’ve been blindsided by a pandemic and that, within just a few months, could kill a quarter of a million people in the U.S., and likely even more.

But here we are. It’s not a hoax, it’s not overblown. We’re going to lose a lot of people.

Need something to read and listen to?

Dan Carlin, who hosts a podcast called “Hardcore History,” just released a brand new episode of his other podcast, “Common Sense,” which is mostly current events-focused. It’s the first new episode in years. I haven’t listened to it yet, but I’ve always found his podcasts to be thoughtful and full of insight, and wanted to turn you guys onto it, if you’re interested.

Carlin also released a book last year, “The End is Always Near,” which I did read. It’s good, and it actually talks about historical examples of pandemics. So, while what we’re living through is crazy, it’s not our first rodeo.

Sorry to be a drag, but again, it’s important to look at things as they are. See you tomorrow.

Sam